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Third-quarter data marked a meaningful transition in the economic landscape. The quarter opened on solid footing and then the backdrop shifted.

The U.S. government has shut down after Congress failed to reach a funding agreement earlier this week. This is the 11th government shutdown since 1981.

The Fed recently cut policy rates by a quarter of a percentage point (or 0.25%) continuing the easing cycle that began in 2024.

The U.S. economy declined at an annualized rate of 0.3% in the first quarter of 2025, marking the first negative reading since early 2022.

As you know, President Trump announced new tariffs on nearly all major U.S. trading partners on Wednesday. The tariffs proved more stringent than the market anticipated.

The administration’s chaotic approach to tariffs – including imposing them, suspending some and walking back others – continues to reverberate through the markets.